Nearly six months into the change of government, the probability of president Boluarte completing her presidential term increases despite underlying risks. While initially the scenario of early elections in 2023 seemed more likely (calling for early elections in December 2022, was approved in the first round) Congress, has lost it’s incentive to continue with the process. In fact, as of January 2023, Congress has rejected the initial proposal and failed to reach a consensus on more than the seven presented proposals. The sustained decline in social conflict has contributed to the issue losing priority in the legislative debate.
For now, the possibility of an advancement materializing by the end of this year or early 2024 is becoming increasingly remote.
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Senior analyst
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.
In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.
