The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.
This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.
Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.
Several economic indicators suggest that the growth observed in late 2024 extended into early 2025. Thus, economic growth at the beginning of this year is estimated to have been around 4%.
Much of the improvement is explained by the fishing sector, which grew by almost 45%, driven by a good first season, which runs from April to June, after it was canceled last year due to weather problems.
It is not convenient for the political parties in Congress to further expand the present electoral offer, considering that most of them already have a significant part of their candidates affiliated with the party.
According to the survey carried out by Ipsos and APOYO Consultoría this month, close to 30% of people rate their current economic situation as bad or very bad. Even so, another 30% expect it to improve in the next 12 months, a percentage that exceeds – for the first time since 2021 – the percentage that expects it to get worse.
Congress's difficulty in finding consensus regarding the political reforms necessary to ensure institutionality, representation, and balance of powers would keep the risk of political crisis latent in the next five years. Likewise, the growing citizen discontent, which could not be satisfied by the poor electoral offer, will maintain uncertainty regarding the next elections.
Growth in categories driven by the pandemic, such as in-home food and homecare, will continue to slow. Other categories hard hit by the pandemic, such as personal care and beverages, will continue to recover.
