El martes 21 de septiembre, el Ministerio de Energía y Minas (Minem) publicó un documento titulado “La Rentabilidad Social”, en el que intenta definir en qué consiste este concepto que se aplicaría para evaluar y aprobar la ejecución de proyectos mineros y energéticos.
Esta semana se dieron tres eventos que permiten vislumbrar la dinámica política de los meses iniciales del nuevo Gobierno: la Mesa Directiva del Congreso, el mensaje a la nación del 28 de julio y la conformación del gabinete de ministros.
Global supply issues could take longer than expected to resolve. Since the end of 2020, problems in global supply chains have led to an increase in the costs of freight and supplies in general. In addition, climatic factors have impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. At the moment it is unclear how long these phenomena will take to regularize. Furthermore, at the local level, as inflation has started to become more widespread, inflation expectations have risen and are likely to take time to normalize. In fact, past episodes in which inflation expectations exceeded the target range lasted between 13 and 16 consecutive months. A scenario of high inflation throughout 2022 would affect the purchasing power of families in a context in which labor income has only partially recovered. Furthermore, if inflation remains high, the Central Bank could raise its reference interest rate further, which would affect the dynamics of credit and the economy at the aggregate level.
Foreign tourism indicators such as tourist arrivals and the number of nights spent are recovering, although they are still well below pre-pandemic levels. This is relevant for the south of the country and for Cusco, since tourism services represent 8% of employment in the south and 10% in Cusco, without considering other activities indirectly benefited from tourism. The key to boosting tourism is the lifting of restrictions. Countries with vaccination levels similar to Peru and that have been less rigorous with the restrictions to face the health crisis have had higher levels of arrival of foreigners than Peru. As vaccination levels advance and restrictions are lifted, tourism will begin to increase.
The initiatives of the request for delegation of powers do not aim to address the urgent problems of citizens, which are the reactivation of formal employment or improvements in public health and education services. On the contrary, some of these could affect the fragile process of recovery of the Peruvian economy. We believe that the type of reforms that the Government seeks to implement, such as in tax matters, merit a broader debate that is not achieved through a request for powers to legislate. Thus, approval by Congress should be carefully evaluated and limited only to measures that seek to improve administrative processes and simplify tax rules.
En entrevista con Gestión, Hugo Santa María, socio y economista jefe de APOYO Consultoría, comentó sobre las expectativas para la economía en lo que resta del año y de cara al 2022; así como de la relación Congreso - Ejecutivo.
