Luego del primer año de gobierno del presidente Castillo, en julio de este año, el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor para Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos (Indicca) alcanzó un nuevo mínimo histórico ubicándose en 31 puntos.
La última encuesta encargada por APOYO Consultoría a Ipsos Perú sobre la percepción de desarrollo y situación económica del país reveló que 2 de cada 3 peruanos perciben que el Perú está retrocediendo. Este es el mayor porcentaje registrado en los últimos 31 años.
There are three recent dynamics that are defining the business environment. First, mining production has continued its downward trend in 2Q2022. Second, the purchasing power of the majority of families has deteriorated. Third, investment has been affected by the high political insecurity and the deterioration of public management.
This month has been marked by key milestones which are making the Government’s position more vulnerable, only eleven months into term. Among these, the fragmentation of the leading party’s Members of Congress, which is weakening the President’s capacity for negotiation in Congress, and the progress in the investigations by the Public Prosecutor into the president and his circle.
The political environment in February was marked by the revelation of alleged cases of corruption in the presidential environment and by the swearing-in of two cabinets in less than two weeks. Although these corruption scandals have reinforced a series of political control actions from Congress, the risk of a disruptive scenario remains low in the short term. Although the legitimacy of the presidential vacancy, currently promoted by the opposition, is increasing, to date there are not the 87 votes necessary to remove President Castillo from office. Consequently, it is most likely that we will continue in a scenario of prolonged mediocrity, in which institutional deterioration, slow decision-making and uncertainty prevail.
In recent months, a large part of the jobs created have been low-productivity and low-paying jobs. This is explained by the fact that the confidence of companies remains very shaken, which limits the recovery in the hiring of people in suitable jobs of higher quality. As a result, the deterioration of labor income, added to the strong increase in prices, keeps income adjusted for inflation at a historically low level, which, in turn, limits the consumption capacity of households.
Despite the recovery of the GDP, there are still no significant improvements in consumer confidence, at the aggregate level. This is explained by the decline in real income, caused by the precariousness of employment and the increase in inflation. However, the decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases and the lifting of mobility restrictions in the last month have benefited some economic sectors, such as hotels, restaurants and recreational activities. This improvement already seems to be benefiting some population groups, such as young people, who have been the most affected by the crisis.
We believe that, in addition to reestablishing fiscal institutions, the MEF's agenda should be oriented towards four main objectives: (i) boost spending on public investment, (ii) increase revenue in the medium term in an efficient and sustainable manner, (iii) recover the fiscal savings that have made it possible to face the latest economic crises without liquidity restrictions and (iv) implement policies that promote long-term growth through the promotion of investment and the creation of quality employment.
According to forecasts by APOYO Consultoría, modern retail sales will remain at levels similar to 2021 (1% drop), but they will be almost 11% above pre-pandemic levels. Department store sales will have the best performance in line with the greater mobility of the population and the recovery of the household budget allocated to this segment. In contrast, self-service and homecenter sales will fall in 2022.
So far in 2021, internet penetration and data consumption has accelerated substantially. The longer time spent at home allowed the gap between mobile and fixed internet penetration to continue to narrow since the pandemic broke out. Towards 2022, our forecasts indicate that there is some room for much more limited growth rates due to: (i) the normalization of demand given to the partial return to face-to-face work; (ii) certain caution in business investment decisions at the corporate level, added to the more pronounced financial deterioration in the mypes segment; and (iii) a weak recovery in the purchasing power of households in a context in which other spending categories - limited during the pandemic - are beginning to reactivate and compete for the consumer's pocket.
