Luego del primer año de gobierno del presidente Castillo, en julio de este año, el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor para Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos (Indicca) alcanzó un nuevo mínimo histórico ubicándose en 31 puntos.
La última encuesta encargada por APOYO Consultoría a Ipsos Perú sobre la percepción de desarrollo y situación económica del país reveló que 2 de cada 3 peruanos perciben que el Perú está retrocediendo. Este es el mayor porcentaje registrado en los últimos 31 años.
There are three recent dynamics that are defining the business environment. First, mining production has continued its downward trend in 2Q2022. Second, the purchasing power of the majority of families has deteriorated. Third, investment has been affected by the high political insecurity and the deterioration of public management.
This month has been marked by key milestones which are making the Government’s position more vulnerable, only eleven months into term. Among these, the fragmentation of the leading party’s Members of Congress, which is weakening the President’s capacity for negotiation in Congress, and the progress in the investigations by the Public Prosecutor into the president and his circle.
Private investment has been facing a highly complicated context. The increase in financing costs, the high construction costs, the growing social conflict, the constant political crisis and the deterioration of public management will continue to affect the investment decisions of companies and families during 2023. In this context, APOYO Consultoría estimates that private investment will fall 2.5% in 2023, a lower growth rate than that estimated for 2022 (-1.3%).
The political environment in February was marked by the revelation of alleged cases of corruption in the presidential environment and by the swearing-in of two cabinets in less than two weeks. Although these corruption scandals have reinforced a series of political control actions from Congress, the risk of a disruptive scenario remains low in the short term. Although the legitimacy of the presidential vacancy, currently promoted by the opposition, is increasing, to date there are not the 87 votes necessary to remove President Castillo from office. Consequently, it is most likely that we will continue in a scenario of prolonged mediocrity, in which institutional deterioration, slow decision-making and uncertainty prevail.
During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by the pending recovery of the services most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the increase in exports in primary sectors (especially mining). However, growth will be low (barely 2.5%), especially in local sales (1.2%) and will be limited by the following factors: (i) a less favorable international environment, and (ii) at the institutional deterioration, high political uncertainty and high levels of regulatory risk and social conflict, which will limit investment flows.
The financial environment for business will be defined by three key features in the next twelve months. First, costs will remain high, but gradually begin to decline. Second, local and international interest rates will remain high. Third, the environment will be subject to multiple sources of uncertainty due to what may happen on the international front, in local politics and in the regulatory field. This will generate ample volatility on the local financial variables whose perspectives are found below.
2Q2022 results were weaker than expected, due to high inflation. On the one hand, the recovery of physical store operations allowed a 15% growth in sales in nominal terms (+7% real) in department stores. Then, due to the strong increase in food prices, self-services grew 9% in nominal terms (+2% real), driven by cheaper store formats. Finally, the homecenter segment grew by almost 9% in nominal terms (+1% in real terms), influenced by the increase in prices of construction finishes and the greater attendance.
