“This scenario reinforces the urgency of advancing toward a legal framework that promotes formal employment and private investment, as well as an effective social protection system that cushions the effects of economic cycles on the most vulnerable,”
—José Carlos Saavedra, Partner and Chief Economist at APOYO Consultoría.
The Peruvian economy is showing clear signs of recovery. The April SAE survey, conducted among more than 300 client companies of APOYO Consultoría, placed investment confidence near its highest level since 2019. In line with this, we estimate that private investment grew by more than 8% in the first quarter, which is driving formal employment. Hiring by the 5,000 largest companies in the country—those that generate the highest-quality jobs—began to recover at the end of last year and reached 6% growth in March, the highest rate in the past two years.
In this context, we are seeing an improvement in household conditions across all segments. Higher-income households—which were less affected by rising prices, credit restrictions, and falling employment in recent years—have benefited most from the release of private savings (AFP and CTS) and strong profit-sharing payments to formal workers in March. Meanwhile, the recovery of the agro-export sector and the rebound in tourism are boosting the hiring of low-skilled workers linked to low-income segments. This is excellent news for a segment that had been severely affected, and it is reflected in last year’s decline in the poverty rate—a trend we expect to continue this year.
However, the widespread improvement in household income has not yet translated into a similarly strong boost in consumption. There are three main reasons for this discrepancy.
First, growing citizen insecurity is changing consumer behavior. According to a survey commissioned by APOYO Consultoría and conducted by Ipsos in March, 93% of the population has modified their consumption habits to avoid risks: 42% avoid going out at night, and 30% go out less frequently.
Second, consumers in socioeconomic segments AB are using their extraordinary income to restore their financial health. A household survey conducted at the end of 2024 showed that over 60% of families in this segment planned to use additional income to pay off debts or save.
Third, after years of sluggish growth and high inflation, households in segments DE—those that have benefited most from recent improvements in the labor market—are using their increased income to repay debts and restore their usual spending levels on essential items. As a result, microenterprise credit delinquency has been decreasing, and both mass consumption sales and self-construction have returned to growth, after declining for much of last year.
Thus, while the cyclical recovery of the economy is positively impacting household income, the boost to consumption remains somewhat limited and uneven across segments.
Looking ahead, there is a risk that the ongoing recovery cycle may be disrupted by international uncertainty and local political instability. The new Trump administration in the United States has been marked by erratic and unpredictable economic policy decisions, which could affect global economic growth—a key driver for Peru. Locally, business expectations have historically deteriorated at the end of the year preceding elections, and employment growth tends to slow in the first half of an election year. In the face of these risks, the recovery in household economies may prove too short-lived to generate significant and widespread improvements. This scenario reinforces the urgency of advancing toward a legal framework that promotes formal employment and private investment, as well as an effective social protection system that cushions the effects of economic cycles on the most vulnerable.
Source: : https://elcomercio.pe/economia/opinion/mejora-en-los-ingresos-de-los-hogares-aun-no-se-refleja-con-la-misma-fuerza-en-mercados-de-consumo-noticia/?ref=ecr
