By 2024, the political scenario begins with less turbulence and a perception of lower risks for the business environment.
A survey by the SAE de APOYO Consultoría, carried out from January 2 to 9 with 31 political analysts, reveals a significant decrease in political risk during the last year. For the consensus of analysts, the probability of the occurrence of critical events that could alter the continuity of the Government has decreased. For example, the possibility of calling general elections fell from 42% to 13% between March 2023 and January 2024, the probability of a vacancy or resignation of President Boluarte fell from 32% to 18%, and the risk of a social upheaval, similar to that of January 2023, was reduced from 47% to 15%.
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Senior analyst
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.
In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.
