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PE_mayo 2025

Economic Outlook

30/05/2025

In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks


In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year. This was explained by a more demanding comparison base relative to the previous year — due to pension fund withdrawals and the “rebound” in agro-export employment — which was reflected mainly in the trade and services sectors. Excluding this statistical effect, the economy would have maintained in the third quarter the same growth pace as in previous months. This can be seen both in the quarter-to-quarter performance of the trade and services sectors and in the year-on-year growth rate of sectors not affected by the statistical effect, such as construction, which maintained a rate of around 5%.

If you wish to access the full report, write to us at: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

Pablo del Águila

Head of the Business Advisory Service

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Government and Congress maintain their alliance as the pension reform stalls and the 2026 election remains fragmented

This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

Economic growth likely remained steady at the beginning of Q2 and is becoming increasingly broad-based, despite the uncertain external environment.

So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.

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