After the recession in 2023 (-0.6%), the Peruvian economy would return to positive territory. However, it is worth analyzing some indicators for next year based on the perception of the business community. APOYO Consultoría shared exclusively with Gestión its most recent SAE Survey.

For the firm, the Peruvian economy would increase 3.2% this year and 2.6% in 2025. Despite this slowdown, and taking into account that next year will be pre-election, the figures show that there is optimism in companies about their performance.

SAE companies expect a 9.4% growth in revenue, and 61% of those surveyed estimate that their profits will increase in that period.

For Pablo del Águila, head of Research at the Business Advisory Service (SAE), of APOYO Consultoría, there are three hypotheses that can be handled.

“One of them is that there is ‘contagion’ of what they are going through now. That is, as they see some improvements today, it affects their expectations and they think that they will continue well next year. A second issue is that there could be less sensitivity to the political aspect in their expectations due to so many years of uncertainty. A third is that the pre-election risk is triggered until the end of next year and to the extent that a ‘disruptive’ candidate advances in the polls,” he commented to Gestión.

Concerns

This optimism hides certain concerns on the part of the business community. When asked about which would be the three main fronts that could generate a greater negative impact on their businesses during the next 18 months, they responded that populism; anti-market candidate; and citizen insecurity.

According to Del Águila, insecurity could gain even more space, but that political issues are also relevant in the face of a 2026 that brings uncertainty due to the electoral process to vote for a new Government.

It should be remembered that insecurity and criminality in the country are simply overflowing. Management has already given details about the collection of “quotas” in civil construction, the increasing victims of extortion and the cost of extortion in public transport, among others. In addition, it reported that the public budget for order and security in 2025 would be less than that allocated for this year.

Families

Another relevant indicator shared by APOYO Consultoría is that of investment seen in three ways: families, companies and the State. For the last two, it shows that it has already distanced itself from the level of 2019 and for this 2024 and 2025 they would be above.

However, that of families is almost at the same level as in 2019, after registering an important “peak” in 2021.

“As a consequence of the confinements, many families began to make renovations in their homes. There were record levels of investment. However, in the second part of 2022 and 2023, the interest in continuing to improve was exhausted. The other thing that plays against it is the accumulated impact on families: pandemic, high inflation, the El Niño phenomenon and the recession,” said Del Águila.

Labor income

For APOYO Consultoría, the slow improvement of total labor income continues. However, when broken down by components, the informal part does not have a future of improvement, since it would remain below the pre-covid level, even in 2025.

“You have a much more affected informal sector, it is having a harder time getting out. In addition, the growth of the economy is not strong enough to create more formal jobs,” said Pablo del Águila.