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Economic Outlook

02/12/2024

Economic recovery consolidates in the fourth quarter, although there are two new risks to growth in 2025


The economic recovery in Q3 has extended into Q4. During Q3, private investment showed clear signs of recovery, with a 4% growth compared to the same quarter in 2023, the highest rate in three years. This increase was associated with a relatively optimistic level of business confidence, lower corporate financing costs, and the progress of large infrastructure projects such as the Chancay port, Line 2 of the Lima Metro, and the expansion of the Lima Airport and the Muelle Norte in Callao. In fact, the machinery acquired for the Chancay port accounted for around a fifth of the growth in capital goods imports in the quarter.

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Daniela Ramos

Analyst

OUR PERSPECTIVE

In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.

Government and Congress maintain their alliance as the pension reform stalls and the 2026 election remains fragmented

This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

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