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Economic Outlook


Four positive developments in the business environment

After a challenging start of the year, characterized by social conflicts and heavy rains, the Peruvian economy has begun to show signs of recovery, albeit at a slow pace. In fact, it is estimated that the GDP grew by 1% during April and May, following a contraction of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2023. This economic recovery has revealed significant variations among sectors, markets and population segments. While investment-related sectors continue to experience double digit declines in the second quarter, markets linked to consumption have rebounded and returned to moderate growth (around 2%), after stagnation in the first quarter. Additionally, the primary sectors have exhibited robust growth (approximately 7%), driven by an increase in mining exports.

Four positive developments have emerged in this context.

Sergio Hinostroza Camargo

Senior Analyst


Improvement trends consolidate and new risks emerge on the horizon

Last month, we identified four pieces of good news for the business environment: (i) lower prices of certain imported goods, (ii) lower political risk, (iii) improved business confidence, and (iv) some stabilization in local financial variables. 

The honeymoon period ends, but the government remains relatively stable

Six months into the administration, signs of an impending deterioration in the relationship between the Executive and Congress are starting to surface.

Boluarte's chances of completing her presidential term increases despite latent risks

Nearly six months into the change of government, the probability of president Boluarte completing her presidential term increases despite underlying risks.

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