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Political outlook

21/06/2022

The honeymoon period ends, but the government remains relatively stable

Six months into the administration, signs of an impending deterioration in the relationship between the Executive and Congress are starting to surface. Although it is unlikely that Dina Boluarte’s stability in office will be impacted, as there is a prevailing incentive for continuity in both branches of government, the end of the initial honeymoon period is approaching. A faction of the parties initially aligned with the government coalition seems to be choosing to distance themselves from a government that is becoming increasingly delegitimized. 

During a recent interview, Keiko Fujimori, leader of the Fuerza Popular party, strongly criticized the government and suggested that the president should make changes in the ministries of Energy and Mines, Interior, Agrarian Development, and Health. It is anticipated that Fuerza Popular will continue to distance itself from the government and openly position itself as the opposition in the future. Similar sentiments have been expressed by Congressman José Cueto of Renovacion Popular. Reflecting this sentiment, Congress has approved motions for interpellation of the ministers of Energy and Mines, Justice, and Health (the Health Minister resigned on June 15th after the motion against her was approved). President Boluarte is expected to announce cabinet modifications during the State of the Nation address on July 28th.

To access the complete report contact us at: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

María Alejandra Gutierrez

Senior analyst

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

Economic growth likely remained steady at the beginning of Q2 and is becoming increasingly broad-based, despite the uncertain external environment.

So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.

The serious deterioration in the conduct of economic policy in the United States would impact Peru's economic growth mainly in 2026.

In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.

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