This month has been marked by key milestones which are making the Government’s position more vulnerable, only eleven months into term. Among these, the fragmentation of the leading party’s Members of Congress, which is weakening the President’s capacity for negotiation in Congress, and the progress in the investigations by the Public Prosecutor into the president and his circle.
Another important milestone is the approval of the ruling to return to bicameralism and congressional reelection, which has a high probability of getting approved at the Plenary, since it was supported by a majority in the Constitution Committee. Its approval could generate incentives in a sector of Congress to favor a scenario of interruption to the president’s mandate, whether through early elections or impeachment.
Moving forward, the election of the Congressional Steering Committee will be key for scenarios in the medium term. The election of someone to convene and reconcile could give Congress new momentum, as well as refresh its image which is currently worse than that of the Government.
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Head of Political Analysis
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.
In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.
