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JUL_panorama económico
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Economic Outlook

01/07/2024

At the end of the second quarter, there are no clear signs of a break in the economic cycle


During the second quarter, GDP would have grown at a higher rate than during the first quarter, mainly due to the recovery of the primary sectors.

The regularization of climatic conditions has boosted the growth of fishing and traditional agriculture. On the one hand, as of June 26, the first anchovy fishing season registered a progress of 98%, which would have allowed the sector to grow around 180% in Q2, compared to the same quarter of 2023. On the other hand, The production of the main traditional agricultural crops has been growing at a high rate due to the greater availability of water.

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Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

Economic growth likely remained steady at the beginning of Q2 and is becoming increasingly broad-based, despite the uncertain external environment.

So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.

The serious deterioration in the conduct of economic policy in the United States would impact Peru's economic growth mainly in 2026.

In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.

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