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Economic Outlook

31/05/2024

Households still do not perceive an improvement in the conditions for consuming, but this should begin to change in the next three months

So far this year, economic activity has shown a differentiated recovery among economic sectors.

Those that were most affected by the protests and rains last summer, such as fishing, tourism, mining and public investment, have registered a clear rebound in their activity levels. These sectors, with the exception of mining, showed double-digit growth rates. However, other sectors more closely linked to household spending, such as home centers and department stores, have not yet shown significant improvements, as they registered drops in the first quarter of 13.5% and 4%, respectively.

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Jose Carlos Saavedra

Partner and Principal Economist

OUR PERSPECTIVE

In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.

Government and Congress maintain their alliance as the pension reform stalls and the 2026 election remains fragmented

This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

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