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Economic Outlook

01/07/2024

Gradual economic recovery at the beginning of Q2, although a “ceiling” on growth after the 2024 “rebound” becomes increasingly likely

During the month, three “climatic conditions” characterized the economic environment.

During April, upward pressure and volatility in the prices of some commodities was high. There was a series of attacks between Israel and Iran, intensifying global fears that the war in the Middle East would escalate. These generated significant upward pressure on oil prices (about a third of production is in the Middle East) and gold (due to demand for safe assets). This pressure eased towards the end of the month, as escalation concerns moderated.

Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

Economic growth likely remained steady at the beginning of Q2 and is becoming increasingly broad-based, despite the uncertain external environment.

So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.

The serious deterioration in the conduct of economic policy in the United States would impact Peru's economic growth mainly in 2026.

In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.

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