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JUL_panorama económico
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Economic Outlook

01/07/2024

At the end of the second quarter, there are no clear signs of a break in the economic cycle


During the second quarter, GDP would have grown at a higher rate than during the first quarter, mainly due to the recovery of the primary sectors.

The regularization of climatic conditions has boosted the growth of fishing and traditional agriculture. On the one hand, as of June 26, the first anchovy fishing season registered a progress of 98%, which would have allowed the sector to grow around 180% in Q2, compared to the same quarter of 2023. On the other hand, The production of the main traditional agricultural crops has been growing at a high rate due to the greater availability of water.

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Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.

Government and Congress maintain their alliance as the pension reform stalls and the 2026 election remains fragmented

This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

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