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Economic Outlook

01/12/2020

The ongoing economic recovery is facing new risks

The international environment is becoming increasingly favorable for Peru. Over the past month, the global scenario has been defined mainly by three factors: the election of Joe Biden as President of the U.S., the successful progress of vaccines in their last stages of development, and the alarming increase in the number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 in some developed countries. Although the latter is holding back economic recovery in some countries, the first two events have significantly improved the prospects for global economic recovery for the upcoming year, specifically from its second half. The reaction of financial markets to these events has been positive. This, added to the accelerated economic recovery in China and the continued expansive monetary impulse at the global level, has created a favorable international environment for Peru.

In addition, at the local level there are four main drivers of economic activity. First, the public sector impulse increased significantly in October. Second, credit continues to grow at high rates. Third, private investment is recovering rapidly, mainly due to specific factors such as home improvements and the demand for information and communication technologies (ICTs). Fourth, the improvement in the public health situation has made it possible to continue the process of economic reopening.

Unfortunately, these improvements in the business environment have been overshadowed by the new political crisis. Thus, despite the improved global context and the greater dynamism of economic activity, the considerable uncertainty caused by the recent political crisis generated a significant risk to economic growth, as high uncertainty could delay the recovery of private investment in productive capacity increases.

Going forward, political uncertainty will be the main obstacle to economic recovery. The evolution of regulatory risk in the business environment, the relationship between the Executive branch and Congress, and the government’s ability to deal with the health and economic crisis will all be crucial to determine the pace of recovery in investment and formal employment in the upcoming months. These factors will be extremely important as the economic situation of families remains strongly deteriorated

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OUR PERSPECTIVE

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2021 started with some setbacks. In order to mitigate the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 contagions, over the past few months, the government has implemented more severe and extensive measures, compared with those adopted at the end of the year. As a result, economic dynamics are now similar to those observed in June, when we were going through the second phase of economic reopening. In line with this, in January and February, economic activity has contracted again, after having recovered pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020. 

INDICCA

En enero el Indicca (Índice de Confianza del Consumidor de Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos) se ubicó en 40 puntos, tres puntos por debajo de la medición del mes anterior. Este resultado representa un ‘bache’ en la incipiente recuperación de la confianza de los consumidores que empezó a observarse al cierre del año pasado.

Economic outlook

Due to the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and the collapse of the health care system, the Government announced new restrictions to diminish the spread of the virus, along with some economic relief measures to compensate their impact. With the information available so far, we consider that the measures taken by the Government will have a moderate aggregate impact on GDP in 2021. In fact, the current restrictions will reduce annual GDP by close to 0.5 percentage points for every month they are in effect.

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