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Economic Outlook


Positive signs at the start of the year, but low economic growth is still expected

In the first few months of the year, the limited impact from the third wave of COVID-19 infections has enabled the sectors that had been lagging behind to experience a rebound. As a matter of fact, we estimate that an important part of the growth of the first few months of the year will be explained by this “rebound” in the sales in retail and some services.

On the political front, the Executive’s capacity to implement its most radical economic and political agenda has continued to weaken this month. This is a result of three factors: 1) the continuing loss of political capital from the population, 2) the weakening in the face of the controlling bodies, such as the public prosecutor and Congress and, 3) the clearly reduced capacity to implement public policy.

Nevertheless, the sustained deterioration of public management and high regulatory risk at the sector-level continue to limit investment growth, both in the private and public sector. Likewise, low investment levels limit the recovery of quality employment, which, when added to high levels of inflation, continues to curb families’ purchasing power.

In summary, the events of the first few months of the year have been in line with our prospects in terms of the health crisis and politics, which leads us to maintain our forecast of a low economic growth of 3% for 2022. However, there are still some risks that continue to generate uncertainty about the economic outlook, such as a potential presidential impeachment or an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Revelations that show the presidential circle is involved in corruption cases further deteriorate the image of the Government

The political environment in February was marked by the revelation of alleged cases of corruption in the presidential circle and by the swearing in of two Cabinets in less than two weeks.

La confianza sigue deprimida, pero los jóvenes comienzan a percibir mejoras en el mercado laboral

A casi dos años desde el inicio de la pandemia, la confianza de los consumidores en Lima Metropolitana continúa entrampada en niveles mínimos históricos.

New crisis triggers the third Cabinet after a second reshuffle in six months of government

In the first month of the year, successive crises have continued to drastically deteriorate the image and credibility of the Executive. The resignation of Prime Minister Mirtha Vásquez deepened the crisis within a Government that was already facing a series of challenges.

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