In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks
In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.
During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by mining production (due to the first complete year of commercial operations of Quellaveco) and the pending recovery of services most affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, growth will be low (only 2,2%), especially growth of local sales (0,7%) and will be limited due to the following factors:
– A less favorable international environment, due to more restrictive international financial conditions and the lower global growth, and
– On a local level, elevated political uncertainty (mainly generated by early elections and the difficulty of Dina Boluarte’s government to contain the protests), which will limit investment flows.
In a scenario where social conflict exacerbates and the wave of violence continues to sweep through the national territory and the government fails to contain them, GDP growth could be lower by at least 0,5 pp than in our baseline scenario.
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Head of Macroeconomic Analysis
In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.
This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
