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Economic Outlook

24/01/2023

2023: Except for the worst year of the pandemic, growth of local sales will be the lowest since 2001

During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by mining production (due to the first complete year of commercial operations of Quellaveco) and the pending recovery of services most affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, growth will be low (only 2,2%), especially growth of local sales (0,7%) and will be limited due to the following factors:

– A less favorable international environment, due to more restrictive international financial conditions and the lower global growth, and

– On a local level, elevated political uncertainty (mainly generated by early elections and the difficulty of Dina Boluarte’s government to contain the protests), which will limit investment flows.

In a scenario where social conflict exacerbates and the wave of violence continues to sweep through the national territory and the government fails to contain them, GDP growth could be lower by at least 0,5 pp than in our baseline scenario.

To access the complete report contact us at: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

Donita Rodríguez

Head of Macroeconomic Analysis

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Improvement trends consolidate and new risks emerge on the horizon

Last month, we identified four pieces of good news for the business environment: (i) lower prices of certain imported goods, (ii) lower political risk, (iii) improved business confidence, and (iv) some stabilization in local financial variables. 

The honeymoon period ends, but the government remains relatively stable

Six months into the administration, signs of an impending deterioration in the relationship between the Executive and Congress are starting to surface.

Four positive developments in the business environment

After a challenging start of the year, characterized by social conflicts and heavy rains, the Peruvian economy has begun to show signs of recovery, albeit at a slow pace.

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