During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by mining production (due to the first complete year of commercial operations of Quellaveco) and the pending recovery of services most affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, growth will be low (only 2,2%), especially growth of local sales (0,7%) and will be limited due to the following factors:
– A less favorable international environment, due to more restrictive international financial conditions and the lower global growth, and
– On a local level, elevated political uncertainty (mainly generated by early elections and the difficulty of Dina Boluarte’s government to contain the protests), which will limit investment flows.
In a scenario where social conflict exacerbates and the wave of violence continues to sweep through the national territory and the government fails to contain them, GDP growth could be lower by at least 0,5 pp than in our baseline scenario.
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Head of Macroeconomic Analysis
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.
In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.
