A rough start of the year due to a wave of social unrest
Over the course of this year, the bussiness environment has undergone three notable changes that are shaping its trajectory.
There are three recent dynamics that are defining the business environment. First, mining production has continued its downward trend in 2Q2022. Second, the purchasing power of the majority of families has deteriorated. Third, investment has been affected by the high political insecurity and the deterioration of public management. All of this has caused economic activity in Peru to contract in 2Q2022 in comparison to 1Q2022, though in year-on-year terms the growth rate has only decelerated slightly (from 3.8% down to 3.5%).
Despite this context, there are some segments of the economy that show dynamism. For example, sales in the export sector grew by 20% in the first four months of the year. Likewise, private consumption has grown by around 4% in 2Q2022, boosted by the post-COVID rebound and the recovery of labor income in the formal labor market.
Unfortunately, these engines will not be enough to generate more dynamism at an aggregate level. What is more, some of the factors that affected the economic growth rate in 1H2022, such as elevated inflation and caution in the private sector, will most likely persist throughout the rest of the year and, in addition, the factors that sustained growth will likely disappear moving forward. In particular, it’s likely that the formal labor market will cool down over the next few months and that there will be less international momentum. That’s why we expect that year-on-year GDP growth will moderate noticeably in the second half of the year (from 3.7% in 1H2022 down to 1.4% in 2H2022).
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Partner and Principal Economist
Over the course of this year, the bussiness environment has undergone three notable changes that are shaping its trajectory.
During February, there was a decrease in the number of protests at the national level, as well as a focus on demonstrations in the south of the country, particularly in Puno.
Enero estuvo marcado por la intensificación de la violencia a nivel nacional, especialmente en el sur del país. La diversidad de actores y de intereses ha dificultado que el Gobierno logre identificar interlocutores válidos para entablar el diálogo; además, en el Congreso no se han alcanzado consensos para aprobar el adelanto de elecciones y con ello establecer una salida a la crisis política.
