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Economic Outlook


2H2022: Marked moderation of the economic growth rate

There are three recent dynamics that are defining the business environment. First, mining production has continued its downward trend in 2Q2022. Second, the purchasing power of the majority of families has deteriorated. Third, investment has been affected by the high political insecurity and the deterioration of public management. All of this has caused economic activity in Peru to contract in 2Q2022 in comparison to 1Q2022, though in year-on-year terms the growth rate has only decelerated slightly (from 3.8% down to 3.5%).

Despite this context, there are some segments of the economy that show dynamism. For example, sales in the export sector grew by 20% in the first four months of the year. Likewise, private consumption has grown by around 4% in 2Q2022, boosted by the post-COVID rebound and the recovery of labor income in the formal labor market.

Unfortunately, these engines will not be enough to generate more dynamism at an aggregate level. What is more, some of the factors that affected the economic growth rate in 1H2022, such as elevated inflation and caution in the private sector, will most likely persist throughout the rest of the year and, in addition, the factors that sustained growth will likely disappear moving forward. In particular, it’s likely that the formal labor market will cool down over the next few months and that there will be less international momentum. That’s why we expect that year-on-year GDP growth will moderate noticeably in the second half of the year (from 3.7% in 1H2022 down to 1.4% in 2H2022).

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José Carlos Saavedra

Partner and Principal Economist


A un año del inicio del Gobierno de Pedro Castillo, más de la mitad de los consumidores limeños se considera en crisis económica

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Tres de cada cinco ejecutivos perciben estancamiento o desaceleración en la demanda actual

La última encuesta encargada por APOYO Consultoría a Ipsos Perú sobre la percepción de desarrollo y situación económica del país reveló que 2 de cada 3 peruanos perciben que el Perú está retrocediendo. Este es el mayor porcentaje registrado en los últimos 31 años.

An Executive that’s more and more vulnerable, but surviving

This month has been marked by key milestones which are making the Government’s position more vulnerable, only eleven months into term. Among these, the fragmentation of the leading party’s Members of Congress, which is weakening the President’s capacity for negotiation in Congress, and the progress in the investigations by the Public Prosecutor into the president and his circle.

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