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Economic outlook


Despite some positive signs in September, economic recovery will remain slow

Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. The lower speed of economic recovery observed between August and September, compared with the pace between May and July, was due to two main reasons: a strong fall in labor incomes, and the fact that the activities included in phase 4 of economic reopening were not resumed, causing a standstill in economic reactivation.

However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts.

On the economic front, indicators related to private investment and formal employment improved, as did the prices of mining exports. On the public health front, the number of infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 began to descend. In consequence, the government removed the lockdown on Sundays and the focalized quarantine in more than 20 provinces in 9 regions in the country, a measure that could result in a favorable impact on businesses in the commerce and restaurant sectors.

The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year. It is most likely that the economic situation of households and of businesses will remain weak, and global uncertainty, high.

In addition, the severe deterioration of the current political environment could affect economic recovery in the upcoming months, in three ways: business confidence could weaken; regulatory risk would remain high; and the macroeconomic fundamentals that make Peru stand out in the region could be jeopardized if a candidate with a populist bias were to win the presidential elections to be held next year.

In brief, in September there was good news for the business environment, but recovery will remain slow in the upcoming months.

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Sondeo SAE

De acuerdo con el sondeo empresarial realizado durante la semana del 12 al 16 de octubre a los clientes del SAE, siete de cada diez ejecutivos califica al riesgo regulatorio desde el Congreso con el máximo grado de preocupación para la toma de decisiones de inversión en sus organizaciones empresariales en los próximos 12 meses.

Panorama fiscal

La crisis ocasionada por el COVID-19 generará un severo deterioro de las cuentas fiscales en el Perú. Si no se implementan medidas, el incremento de la deuda pública sería insostenible. Si se implementan algunas medidas tributarias, se podría estabilizar la deuda pública alrededor de 40% del PBI. Aún hay espacio para generar mejoras adicionales y estabilizar la deuda pública en el límite legal de 30% del PBI.

COVID-19 in Latin America

Latin America has been one of the regions most affected by the spread of COVID-19, both in terms of health and economy. To date, five of the ten countries with the highest number of deaths per million people are Latin American. Furthermore, the GDP of the region will contract close to 9% this year, almost twice as much as the average decline expected on a global level (5%).

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