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Economic outlook

29/09/2020

Despite some positive signs in September, economic recovery will remain slow

Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. The lower speed of economic recovery observed between August and September, compared with the pace between May and July, was due to two main reasons: a strong fall in labor incomes, and the fact that the activities included in phase 4 of economic reopening were not resumed, causing a standstill in economic reactivation.

However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts.

On the economic front, indicators related to private investment and formal employment improved, as did the prices of mining exports. On the public health front, the number of infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 began to descend. In consequence, the government removed the lockdown on Sundays and the focalized quarantine in more than 20 provinces in 9 regions in the country, a measure that could result in a favorable impact on businesses in the commerce and restaurant sectors.

The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year. It is most likely that the economic situation of households and of businesses will remain weak, and global uncertainty, high.

In addition, the severe deterioration of the current political environment could affect economic recovery in the upcoming months, in three ways: business confidence could weaken; regulatory risk would remain high; and the macroeconomic fundamentals that make Peru stand out in the region could be jeopardized if a candidate with a populist bias were to win the presidential elections to be held next year.

In brief, in September there was good news for the business environment, but recovery will remain slow in the upcoming months.

To see the complete report, contact us at contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com.

OUR PERSPECTIVE

INDICCA

En diciembre el Indicca se ubicó en 43 puntos, cuatro puntos por encima del nivel del mes anterior. Si bien este resultado sugiere una mejora en las condiciones para consumir de las familias limeñas hacia el cierre del año, en realidad una buena parte del incremento se explica por el efecto estacional que siempre se da en fiestas navideñas.

Agroindustria

La primera protesta social que tuvo que enfrentar el gobierno del presidente Sagasti ha sido protagonizada por trabajadores vinculados con la agroindustria de exportación, inicialmente centrada en la región Ica, que aporta la quinta parte de las exportaciones del sector agrícola no tradicional. Las demandas sociales se centraban en tres temas principales: (i) la eliminación de las services, (ii) el aumento de la remuneración diaria (de S/39,2 a S/70) con acceso a mayores beneficios y (iii) estabilidad laboral.

INDICCA

En noviembre el Indicca (Índice de Confianza del Consumidor de Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos) se ubicó en 39 puntos, tres puntos por debajo del resultado del mes anterior. Este resultado representa un estancamiento en la confianza de los consumidores en niveles históricamente bajos y pone freno a la incipiente recuperación que empezaba a observarse.

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