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Economic outlook


Despite some positive signs in September, economic recovery will remain slow

Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. The lower speed of economic recovery observed between August and September, compared with the pace between May and July, was due to two main reasons: a strong fall in labor incomes, and the fact that the activities included in phase 4 of economic reopening were not resumed, causing a standstill in economic reactivation.

However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts.

On the economic front, indicators related to private investment and formal employment improved, as did the prices of mining exports. On the public health front, the number of infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 began to descend. In consequence, the government removed the lockdown on Sundays and the focalized quarantine in more than 20 provinces in 9 regions in the country, a measure that could result in a favorable impact on businesses in the commerce and restaurant sectors.

The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year. It is most likely that the economic situation of households and of businesses will remain weak, and global uncertainty, high.

In addition, the severe deterioration of the current political environment could affect economic recovery in the upcoming months, in three ways: business confidence could weaken; regulatory risk would remain high; and the macroeconomic fundamentals that make Peru stand out in the region could be jeopardized if a candidate with a populist bias were to win the presidential elections to be held next year.

In brief, in September there was good news for the business environment, but recovery will remain slow in the upcoming months.

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A rough start of the year due to a wave of social unrest​

Over the course of this year, the bussiness environment has undergone three notable changes that are shaping its trajectory.

Executive and Congress are holding their own amid the decrease in protests and the deadlock in the debate on early elections

During February, there was a decrease in the number of protests at the national level, as well as a focus on demonstrations in the south of the country, particularly in Puno.

Cerca del 80% de empresas sufrió impacto moderado o alto debido a protestas

Enero estuvo marcado por la intensificación de la violencia a nivel nacional, especialmente en el sur del país. La diversidad de actores y de intereses ha dificultado que el Gobierno logre identificar interlocutores válidos para entablar el diálogo; además, en el Congreso no se han alcanzado consensos para aprobar el adelanto de elecciones y con ello establecer una salida a la crisis política.

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