Despite some positive signs in September, economic recovery will remain slow
Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. The lower speed of economic recovery observed between August and September, compared with the pace between May and July, was due to two main reasons: a strong fall in labor incomes, and the fact that the activities included in phase 4 of economic reopening were not resumed, causing a standstill in economic reactivation.
However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts.
On the economic front, indicators related to private investment and formal employment improved, as did the prices of mining exports. On the public health front, the number of infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 began to descend. In consequence, the government removed the lockdown on Sundays and the focalized quarantine in more than 20 provinces in 9 regions in the country, a measure that could result in a favorable impact on businesses in the commerce and restaurant sectors.
The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year. It is most likely that the economic situation of households and of businesses will remain weak, and global uncertainty, high.
In addition, the severe deterioration of the current political environment could affect economic recovery in the upcoming months, in three ways: business confidence could weaken; regulatory risk would remain high; and the macroeconomic fundamentals that make Peru stand out in the region could be jeopardized if a candidate with a populist bias were to win the presidential elections to be held next year.
In brief, in September there was good news for the business environment, but recovery will remain slow in the upcoming months.
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Fujimori plantea una continuación del marco constitucional vigente, que en términos económicos prioriza la inversión privada. En contraste, Castillo proyecta un cambio profundo en el marco legal y, por tanto, una nueva dirección económica para el país. En este último caso, existe el riesgo de que se materialice una mayor participación del Estado en diversos sectores clave, incluso sin cambios constitucionales notorios.
La mayoría de las empresas del segmento corporativo no tendrán que mantenerse en modo “ajuste de costos” por varios años para repagar su deuda, y podrán destinar una parte de sus ingresos a retomar sus proyectos de inversión.
Es cierto que durante el periodo en que Evo Morales estuvo en el poder (2006-2019), la economía boliviana destacó en la región y alcanzó algunos logros sociales sobresalientes. Sin embargo, esos resultados fueron, en conjunto, inferiores a los que el Perú consiguió en el mismo periodo.