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Economic outlook


Peru in 2020: Difficult times for the business environment

Donita Rodríguez, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis.

  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peruvian economy is countering a shock of unprecedented nature and magnitude.
  • It is most likely that in March, GDP contracted by almost 20% compared with March 2019, generating a 5% fall in the 1Q2020. This has been the result of containment measures adopted by the Peruvian government (a 28-day mandatory social isolation) and of the production standstill observed in several countries in the world.
  • It is likely that the economic contraction in 2020 will be severe and long-lasting (annual GDP will fall by 5%). Consumption and investment will register their steepest falls of the past 20 years.
  • This scenario assumes, among other factors, a global recession and government measures accounting for 3% of GDP. In this exercise we have still not considered the additional measures announced by the government (which would raise impulse up to 12% of GDP).
  • Despite the adverse scenario in terms of economic growth, the depreciation of the Peruvian Sol against the U.S. Dollar will be limited and long-term financing costs will return to their average of the past 5 years (6.0%).

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A un año del inicio del Gobierno de Pedro Castillo, más de la mitad de los consumidores limeños se considera en crisis económica

Luego del primer año de gobierno del presidente Castillo, en julio de este año, el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor para Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos (Indicca) alcanzó un nuevo mínimo histórico ubicándose en 31 puntos.

Tres de cada cinco ejecutivos perciben estancamiento o desaceleración en la demanda actual

La última encuesta encargada por APOYO Consultoría a Ipsos Perú sobre la percepción de desarrollo y situación económica del país reveló que 2 de cada 3 peruanos perciben que el Perú está retrocediendo. Este es el mayor porcentaje registrado en los últimos 31 años.

2H2022: Marked moderation of the economic growth rate

There are three recent dynamics that are defining the business environment. First, mining production has continued its downward trend in 2Q2022. Second, the purchasing power of the majority of families has deteriorated. Third, investment has been affected by the high political insecurity and the deterioration of public management.

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