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Economic outlook

01/04/2020

Peru in 2020: Difficult times for the business environment

Donita Rodríguez, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis.

  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peruvian economy is countering a shock of unprecedented nature and magnitude.
  • It is most likely that in March, GDP contracted by almost 20% compared with March 2019, generating a 5% fall in the 1Q2020. This has been the result of containment measures adopted by the Peruvian government (a 28-day mandatory social isolation) and of the production standstill observed in several countries in the world.
  • It is likely that the economic contraction in 2020 will be severe and long-lasting (annual GDP will fall by 5%). Consumption and investment will register their steepest falls of the past 20 years.
  • This scenario assumes, among other factors, a global recession and government measures accounting for 3% of GDP. In this exercise we have still not considered the additional measures announced by the government (which would raise impulse up to 12% of GDP).
  • Despite the adverse scenario in terms of economic growth, the depreciation of the Peruvian Sol against the U.S. Dollar will be limited and long-term financing costs will return to their average of the past 5 years (6.0%).

To see the complete report contact us: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

OUR PERSPECTIVE

The Executive-Legislative relationship strengthens amid political uncertainty

In the last month, the political panorama has been marked by the beginning of the electoral race. The electoral schedule requires possible candidates who want to participate in the next electoral process to be affiliated with a political organization.

At the end of the second quarter, there are no clear signs of a break in the economic cycle

During the second quarter, GDP would have grown at a higher rate than during the first quarter, mainly due to the recovery of the primary sectors.

President Boluarte opens new legal and political avenues, although her support in Congress remains solid

In the month of May, the Attorney General, Juan Carlos Villena, filed a constitutional complaint against President Dina Boluarte, for the alleged crime of improper passive bribery to the detriment of the State.

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