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Economic outlook

01/04/2020

Peru in 2020: Difficult times for the business environment

Donita Rodríguez, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis.

  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peruvian economy is countering a shock of unprecedented nature and magnitude.
  • It is most likely that in March, GDP contracted by almost 20% compared with March 2019, generating a 5% fall in the 1Q2020. This has been the result of containment measures adopted by the Peruvian government (a 28-day mandatory social isolation) and of the production standstill observed in several countries in the world.
  • It is likely that the economic contraction in 2020 will be severe and long-lasting (annual GDP will fall by 5%). Consumption and investment will register their steepest falls of the past 20 years.
  • This scenario assumes, among other factors, a global recession and government measures accounting for 3% of GDP. In this exercise we have still not considered the additional measures announced by the government (which would raise impulse up to 12% of GDP).
  • Despite the adverse scenario in terms of economic growth, the depreciation of the Peruvian Sol against the U.S. Dollar will be limited and long-term financing costs will return to their average of the past 5 years (6.0%).

To see the complete report contact us: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Sondeo SAE

De acuerdo con el sondeo empresarial realizado durante la semana del 12 al 16 de octubre a los clientes del SAE, siete de cada diez ejecutivos califica al riesgo regulatorio desde el Congreso con el máximo grado de preocupación para la toma de decisiones de inversión en sus organizaciones empresariales en los próximos 12 meses.

Panorama fiscal

La crisis ocasionada por el COVID-19 generará un severo deterioro de las cuentas fiscales en el Perú. Si no se implementan medidas, el incremento de la deuda pública sería insostenible. Si se implementan algunas medidas tributarias, se podría estabilizar la deuda pública alrededor de 40% del PBI. Aún hay espacio para generar mejoras adicionales y estabilizar la deuda pública en el límite legal de 30% del PBI.

Economic outlook

Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts. The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year.

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