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Political outlook

02/06/2022

Recent appointments strengthen the balance of power, but some risks persist

Last month, new appointments were made in constitutionally and regulatory autonomous entities and in the Executive, favoring the balance of power. On the one hand, the election of the Constitutional Court judges and the appointment of the presidents of regulatory bodies show signs of stability, on the other hand, the appointments to the Cabinet send out ambiguous signals.

While the Minister of Transport and Communications and the Minister of Agriculture are being questioned, the appointment of the Minister of Energy and Mines constitutes an improvement of technical capacities and a reduction of the influence of cerronismo in the sector. Among her first actions, Minister Herrera replaced senior officials, strengthening the institutionality of the sector.

Despite the changes made to the Cabinet by the president, Congress decided to vote for a censure motion against the Minister of Labor, Betssy Chávez, and with 71 votes in favor, 28 against and 12 abstentions, the vote demonstrated the fractioning of the ruling party. In addition, it is expected that the new minister will maintain the continuity in the sector, in line with the words of Prime Minister Torres: “The Government will continue with the direction previously outlined.”

New points of view could alter the political outlook. These include the decision of the Attorney General, Pablo Sánchez, to investigate President Castillo for the case of Puente Tarata III. The information revealed in this investigation could put pressure on Congress to push for presidential impeachment or to bring forward the election. In addition, the approval of a constitutional infringement against Dina Boluarte could open new scenarios in the present phase of the process of transition.

To access the complete report contact us at: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com

Camila Bozzo

Head of Political Analysis

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Improvement trends consolidate and new risks emerge on the horizon

Last month, we identified four pieces of good news for the business environment: (i) lower prices of certain imported goods, (ii) lower political risk, (iii) improved business confidence, and (iv) some stabilization in local financial variables. 

The honeymoon period ends, but the government remains relatively stable

Six months into the administration, signs of an impending deterioration in the relationship between the Executive and Congress are starting to surface.

Four positive developments in the business environment

After a challenging start of the year, characterized by social conflicts and heavy rains, the Peruvian economy has begun to show signs of recovery, albeit at a slow pace.

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